A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
