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Mounting concerns have emerged about the chance of warfare between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a heated verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in 2023 that his government's sea access was an vital issue, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the two countries have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, legally broke away from Ethiopian rule in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict started in which more than 100,000 people died.

Current Comments from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have openly claimed control of Eritrean southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and implied the wish to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of losing entry to the sea as a result of Eritrea secession would be "corrected in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for access to the Red Sea labeling it "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a strategy of retaking lost territory.

The information ministry warned on mid-September that attempts to justify "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Activities on the Ground

So far, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the neighboring states.

Nonetheless, in the country, national TV has broadcast training completions of many recruits at various military training camps.

The leader of staff section of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an interview that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the British administration before becoming a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

However in 1962 the ruler cancelled this arrangement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war occurred, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Autonomy was then approved by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a announcement that the war was finished – a action that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then partners in Ethiopia's recent civil war in the northern region.

However ties have since broken down anew.